Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
