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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still