Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
